JEFAS (antes Cuadernos de Difusión) Vol. 3 Nº 5 (1995)

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12640/4103

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Author: search.filters.author.Roca, SantiagoSubject: search.filters.subject.https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#5.02.04

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    Evolución y proyectos de la economía peruana
    (Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 1995-06-30) Roca, Santiago; Simabuko, Luis
    This article analyzes the Peruvian economy’s evolution during 1994 and its prospects for the next two years. Concerning 1994, according to the main economic indicators, we find that the country grew for the second consecutive year and reduced its inflation level. This result was influenced by two factors: the increase of domestic interest rate in foreign currency’s and the considerable income from privatization. As for the projections for 1995-1996, it was found that inflation (7-8% annual growth) and economic growth (7% annual growth) would be manageable as long as the assumptions about public expenditure, privatization revenues, and capital flows during the period were met. However, these same elements threaten the exchange rate, a central problem for the medium-term economic program’s viability. Also of concern is the dependence on foreign savings and the low level of domestic savings. We conclude by pointing out that in the future it will be necessary to promote economic investment that generates employment and not only financial investment, as well as to significantly reduce the external debt.
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    A propósito de la privatización de Petroperú: negocios independientes o integración vertical
    (Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 1995-06-30) Roca, Santiago
    It analyzes the various sales modalities raised in view of the privatization of the state oil company, Petroperú, mainly the modality of subdivision into independent businesses proposed by the Special Committee for the Promotion of Private Investment (Cepri) of this company. It finds that, apparently, the oil industry needs to operate vertically integrated; however, this possibility must be determined based on the market, the interlinking between the parties and the objectives to be achieved for the benefit of the country. On the other hand, the plan presented by Cepri combines transfer of ownership, strategic alliances with oil operators, concession and license mechanisms, but it would also establish the obligatory of a series of long-term contracts and regulatory mechanisms that would replace the internal transactions of an integrated system. Other options that could generate positive results are also analyzed, provided the necessary regulations are in place. Finally, it points out that in order to decide the best form of privatization, not only the costs, risks and business potential of each option must be evaluated, but also the political consequences and the benefits that the State would obtain from each one of them.