JEFAS Vol. 20 Nº 38 (2015)

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12640/4126

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    Effects of fiscal deficit and money M2 supply on inflation: evidence from selected economies of Asia
    (Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 2015-06-01) Nguyen, Van Bon
    A sustained high growth rate of gross domestic product at a low inflation is one of the main goals of the majority of macroeconomic policies, so keeping the price stability plays an important role in determining the growth rate of output. This paper empirically investigates effects of fiscal deficit and broad money M2 supply on inflation in Asian countries, namely Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam in the period of 1985-2012. By applying the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation-based error correction model and the panel differenced GMM (General Method of Moment) Arellano-Bond estimator, the study finds out broad money M2 supply has significantly positive impact on inflation only in the method of PMG estimation whereas fiscal deficit, government expenditure and interest rate are the statistically significant determinants of inflation in both methods of estimation.
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    Threshold effects of inflation on growth in the ASEAN-5 countries: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression approach
    (Universidad ESAN. ESAN Ediciones, 2015-06-01) Thanh, Su Dinh
    The relationship between inflation and economic growth is a contentious Issue. The present study is undertaking to test hypothesis that the relationship between inflation and economic growth is nonlinear. This pane data study involves ASEAN-5 countries over the period 1980–2011. Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model is employed to estimate the threshold of inflation and its effects on economic growth. Furthermore we also check robustness by using GMM-IV specification. The study finds that there exists a statistically significant negative relationship between inflation and growth for the inflation rates above the threshold level of 7.84% above which inflation starts impeding economic growth in the ASEAN-5 countries. The results suggest that central banks in the ASEAN-5 countries could improve economic growth by reducing inflation when it is above or near the estimated thresholds. The threshold inflation level can be considered therefore as inflation targeting indicator to conduct monetary policy.